Shortwave radio propagation: non-correlation with planetary positions: a critical analysis of the forecasts of John H Nelson

Author: Dean, Dr. Geoffrey
Abstract: This study greatly extends that by Nias on the same topic (Correlation 1, 2. Pp 37-40) It examines Nelson’s claims that planetary positions correlate with short-wave radio quality and that they can be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts. Exhaustive computer analysis of 2006 1/2 day or 1/4 day quality forecasts (based on planetary positions) made by Nelson for RCA during 1964-5, and 4960 daily forecasts made for “73 Magazine” during 1966-82, failed to find support for his claims. There was no significant correlation between forecast and outcome (mean r = 0.01), and the outcome on days forecast as poor was not significantly different from that on days forecast as good. Nelson’s forecasts performed considerably worse than US Government forecasts and a control forecast based on the quality one solar rotation before. The accuracy of 105 forecasts of solar flares was not significantly better than chance. To increase the sensitivity of the analysis of a daily planetary index based on Nelson’s rules was compared with observed radio qualities and geomagnetic indices. No planetary effect was detectable, nor was the alleged effect of nodes and perihelia. In disagreement with Nelson’s claims, hard aspects and associated harmonic aspects were not consistently more numerous on the most disturbed 3% of days during 1969-80 than on the lest disturbed 3% of days. In particular, the 12 days with the most adverse planetary configurations during 25 years were not significantly different from those with the least adverse. Nelson’s claims are incompatible with the physical processes involved and are shown to rest upon three things, namely a statistical artefact that led to his original ideas, a calculation artefact that gives spuriously high accuracy, and selection of data to fit the case. The results do not deny that the planets could affect the Sun in other ways.
Keywords: geomagnetic, Nelson, radipo propagation, solar flares, harmonic aspects
Notes:See also John Nelson’s response by letter to Dean’s criticisms Vol. 3 Issue 1 page 57
Publication: Correlation: Astrological Association Journal of Research In Astrology
Issue: Volume 3 Issue 1
Dated: 1983
Pages: Pages 4 – 37