Improving the Application of Astrology to Individuals: probabilistic models using Item Response Theory

Author: Dean, Dr. Geoffrey and Loptson, Peter
Abstract: If the stars incline but do not compel, then astrological outcomes are innately probabilistic. Therefore only probabilistic models are appropriate but hitherto their use has been neglected. This is unfortunate because they promise to revolutionise the everyday practice of working astrologers regardless of whether astrology is used as a language or as an information source. Probabilistic models examine each chart factor (without limit on number or complexity) using modern computer techniques of item response theory, and then produce the best synthesis by maximum likelihood estimation. They do what an astrologer does but include what no astrologer can do, namely address astrology’s inherent uncertainty directly. In effect, they allow astrologers and techniques to be separated from clients, thus delivering astrology freed from the quirks of a particular approach and armed with an objective evaluation of predictive reliability, meaning an end to hedging bets with ifs and buts. Probabilistic models require the use of a computer but are otherwise easy to apply. They are perhaps the most obvious way of improving the application of astrology to individuals.
Keywords: Item response theory, probabilistic models, techniques
Notes:
Publication: Correlation: Astrological Association Journal of Research Into Astrology
Issue: Volume 12 Issue 1
Dated: 1993
Pages: Pages 10 – 27