Blog Archives

Is there No Mars Effect?

The French skeptics (CFEPP) attempt to replicate the Gauquelin Mars effect used a sample of 1,966 sports champions taken from two biographical sources. They reported an insignificant surplus of births in Mars key sectors upon which they concluded that a Mars effect was non-existent. The surplus became larger but remained insignificant when the CFEPP’s own critic, Dr, Nienhuys, mathematician at the Technical University of Eindhoven in the Netherlands, at my suggestion corrected the CFEPP’s wrong expectancy. However, Nienhuys missed an opportunity to correct another flaw, namely the CFEPP’s inclusion of cases that were not eminent enough to meet the requirements of “supreme eminence”. A Mars effect becomes manifest only with eminent professionals. On the one hand, the CFEPP rightly argued that champions listed in both biographical sources were more eminent on average than those listed in only one course. But they did not use this criterion for all 36 sports disciplines except for two that lacked appropriate records of successes. When all double sources (= more eminent) champions out of the CFEPP’s total were picked, a significant Mars effect (p = .02) resulted. In addition, the Mars effect for double-source champions was significantly (p = .04) larger than that of single-source champions, whose proportion of births with Mars in key sections did not deviate significantly from chance. In order to remove doubts of critics, a number of competent and independent researchers were invited to scrutinise the counts of the CFEPP’s published data as well as to analyse them using their own procedures. Six of them replied and all confirmed the counts. Four confirmed the significance of the Mars key sector deviations. Three confirmed the conclusions without reservation and one with some reservation. Two considered the CFEPP data and methodology as inappropriate which view is shown to be untenable.

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An Ancient Philosopher’s Criticism of Astrology: Sextus Empericus

This article gives a brief outline of pyrrhonism, the “skeptical way of life”, as it was described by the Greek physician Sextus Empericus. More extensively, it discusses his book Against the Astrologers, which describes and crticises astrology as it was practised in the 2nd or 3rd century AD. From Sextus’s description it is evident that the basic concepts of astrology have not changed much over the past 18 centuries. Surprisingly, much of his criticism seems fairly modern.

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Cosmic Influcences: a new proposal

The present state of research on the Gauquelin data is re-considered in the light of more recent Darwinian theory and the ecology of family systems. New testable predictions are derived which are not subject to allegations of possible fraud by the Gauquelins. Important features are explained including curvilinear eminence and gender effects, and it is suggested that CTH (Character Trait Hypothesis) and inheritance effect need to be reconsidered if the predictions can be verified. A small study is presented which supports the theory, and further testing is invited.

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Astrology on the Internet

Astrology on the Internet during 1996 is surveyed, including the newsgroup alt.astrology, mailing lists and the World Wide Web. Special attention is given to the topics, the numbers participating, and the quality of discussion. Almost all public astrology on the Internet is social or commercial talk of little interest to researchers. Included is an annotated list of useful Internet addresses.

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New Research in Personality and Astrology

The author argues for an alternative model of how astrology works. He proposes that only a few percent of people are “enhancers” or “starborn” and for those people astrological indicators work well. This theory accords closely with the Gauqulelin findings and also with his own work on time-twins. Finally, he presents evidence from questionnaire research that the starborn (as a small proportion) can be found among “ordinary people” by discerning planetary traits from their answers to carefully selected questions. It is suggested that the significance of this work would be much enhanced by independent replication.

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How to suppress the Gauquelin Mars Effect? Strategies of concerned committtess

This article summarises the evidence for the reality of Gauquelin’s claim of planet-birth frequency correlations The existence of planetary effects, however, exemplified by Mars and sports champions, is denied by skeptic circles. The grounds for this point of view are traced to biased investigations. The skeptics tend to work out insufficient designs, to collect unfavorable data, to prevent planetary effects from emerging, to ignore positive results if they show up or to obliterate them by reinterpretation and to defame authors whose results confirm planetary effects while providing evidence for the skeptics’ unfairness. The conclusion is that an increasing number of unprejudiced scientists is required who are ready to acknowledge the existing positive evidence while augmenting it by replications.

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Forecasting Political and Economic Cycles

In this paper evidence is presented that political and economic cycles of activity are correlated with celestial cycles. Political patterns of war and peace, and economic patterns of recession, depression, recovery and prosperity are closely associated with the fundamental and harmonic waves of the five outer planets of the solar system throughout the 20th century. Correlations of political and economic dependent variables with several planetary waves are statistically significant. Graphs of outer-planetary fundamental and harmonic waves for the 20th and 21st centuries are presented and interpreted from a political and economic perspective. Global warfare is predicted beginning in 2032. Recommendations are made for further research.

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Discourse for Key Topic 2 (KT2): some Philosophical Problems of Astrology

Modern philosophers generally accept astrology as a source of sympathy and support, but they reject it as a source of knowledge. This matches the idea, introduced in KT1, that astrology can be viewed in two ways, one in terms of the purely subjective satisfaction enjoyed by users, and the other in terms of its objective accuracy. The discourse looks at some philosophical (I.e., conceptual) problems revealed by each viewpoint. Astrology from the satisfaction viewpoint is generally unproblematic: (1) Satisfaction typically rests on value judgments and subjective feelings, both of which can legitimately differ. So arguments about the extent and type of satisfaction provided by astrology may be pointless. (2) The astrology so viewed need not be true and is therefore uncontroversial. (3) Nevertheless problems can arise if astrologers needlessly embrace assailable arguments. Why undermine uncontroversial claims with assailable arguments? (4) Problems can also arise if satisfaction depends on perceptions that are in fact false. Action based on false perceptions could be harmful. Astrology from the accuracy viewpoint faces numerous problems: (1) Astrology is defined as precisely not the result of any means we know of. (2) Astrological effects are essentially statistical, are non-identifiable except after the event, and therefore cannot be an independent source of knowledge. (3) Astrologers have been reluctant to describe what their model predicts, the criteria by which it could be tested, and the evidence they would accept as showing it had failed. (4) No claims to accuracy can be justified unless astrologers make proper experiments and distinguish between alternative explanations and have independent reasons for thinking that astrological effects exist.

Posted in Free Research Abstract

Births of priests should abound on feast: Scrutinies of Geoffrey Dean’s parental tampering claim (2)

According to Geoffrey Dean’s tampering hypothesis, superstitious parents of just-born babies who later would become eminent professionals tended to report wrong birth dates at registration offices so as to make the births fall on auspicious days, including Christian feast days. I scrutinized the validity of this claim by counting births on Christian feast days for a sample of French priests (Gauquelin data, N=884) and Belgian Benedictine monks (Verhulst data, N=1506). Dean’s sample of non-clerical Gauquelin professionals (N=15,942) served as a mundane reference sample. Since Christian families bringing up future priests and monks are generally more religious than families bringing up children of mundane professions, their motivation to shift their children’s births on Christian feast days should be stronger than among families with mundane offspring – provided that such motivation exists at all. Consequently, birth counts on Christian feasts of future priests and monks should be more numerous compared to birth counts on Christian feast days of future actors, journalists, military leaders etc. However, the results show that births of future clergy on Christian feast days are not significantly more numerous than birth counts of mundane offspring. Birth counts differ between fixed and movable feasts, with births on fixed feasts alone perhaps slightly supporting Dean’s stance, but births on movable feasts entirely disconfirm his hypothesis. The fixed versus movable feast difference is unexpected and escapes any interpretation in terms of tampering. It is concluded that birth counts on Christian feasts cannot responsibly be used as indicators of superstition.

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On the relationship between urbanisation and the spread of popular belief systems: a comment on Prof. Ertel’s paper in corrrelation 19(2)

The author challenges the supposition that the belief systems proposed by Dean (2000) should be more pronounced in rural than urban areas and uses empirical data to demonstrate the validity of that challenge. Rural-urban disparities in the percentage of people who agree to the item “Good luck charms sometimes do bring good luck” (results based on answers from n = 14395 respondents from 12 different countries) suggest that rural people are not more superstitious than those from urban areas. The implications of this are discussed.

Posted in Free Research Abstract